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Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios and age groups

Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios and age groups Catalonia. 2050
Value Percentage (%)
Low scenario 7,300,046 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 901,545 12.35
From 16 to 64 years 4,171,626 57.15
From 65 years and over 2,226,875 30.50
Medium scenario 8,608,919 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 1,179,446 13.70
From 16 to 64 years 4,939,434 57.38
From 65 years and over 2,490,039 28.92
High scenario 9,778,079 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 1,455,269 14.88
From 16 to 64 years 5,598,893 57.26
From 65 years and over 2,723,917 27.86
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021).
Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By age groups Spain. 2050
Value Percentage (%)
Population 49,910,653 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 6,652,725 13.33
From 16 to 64 years 27,563,559 55.23
From 65 years and over 15,694,369 31.44
Units: Number of persons.
Source: INE.

Last update: October 16, 2014. Revised series on April 7, 2022.

Methodological note

The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2021) is the estimated population for 1 January 2021, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2020. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2071. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2040 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.

Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.

Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.

The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.