Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios and sex
| Low scenario | Men | Women | Medium scenario | Men | Women | High scenario | Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2070 | 6,543,012 | 3,218,305 | 3,324,707 | 8,705,831 | 4,331,177 | 4,374,654 | 10,635,330 | 5,319,616 | 5,315,714 |
| 2065 | 6,744,750 | 3,236,303 | 3,346,156 | 8,702,978 | 4,329,038 | 4,376,199 | 10,438,302 | 5,211,246 | 5,227,056 |
| 2060 | 6,948,706 | 3,254,679 | 3,367,781 | 8,693,530 | 4,326,997 | 4,377,734 | 10,233,294 | 5,099,632 | 5,133,662 |
| 2055 | 7,138,833 | 3,273,353 | 3,389,578 | 8,665,880 | 4,325,016 | 4,379,268 | 10,015,744 | 4,982,322 | 5,033,422 |
| 2050 | 7,300,046 | 3,292,264 | 3,411,456 | 8,608,919 | 4,323,034 | 4,380,678 | 9,778,079 | 4,855,244 | 4,922,835 |
| 2045 | 7,424,817 | 3,311,390 | 3,433,360 | 8,516,253 | 4,321,064 | 4,381,914 | 9,512,526 | 4,714,182 | 4,798,344 |
| 2040 | 7,514,099 | 3,330,688 | 3,455,216 | 8,388,817 | 4,318,988 | 4,382,977 | 9,215,125 | 4,557,818 | 4,657,307 |
| 2035 | 7,575,914 | 3,350,021 | 3,476,940 | 8,236,125 | 4,316,805 | 4,383,809 | 8,892,587 | 4,389,582 | 4,503,005 |
| 2030 | 7,618,850 | 3,369,377 | 3,498,521 | 8,073,329 | 4,314,461 | 4,384,363 | 8,536,549 | 4,204,989 | 4,331,560 |
| 2025 | 7,659,666 | 3,751,129 | 3,908,537 | 7,887,834 | 3,870,135 | 4,017,699 | 8,092,760 | 3,977,156 | 4,115,604 |
| Units: Number of persons. | |||||||||
| Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021). | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2070 | 50,589,811 | 24,364,537 | 26,225,274 |
| 2065 | 50,331,306 | 24,244,315 | 26,086,990 |
| 2060 | 50,228,241 | 24,218,921 | 26,009,320 |
| 2055 | 50,135,516 | 24,214,254 | 25,921,262 |
| 2050 | 49,910,653 | 24,155,426 | 25,755,228 |
| 2045 | 49,485,811 | 24,003,062 | 25,482,749 |
| 2040 | 48,905,120 | 23,777,552 | 25,127,568 |
| 2035 | 48,284,479 | 23,536,198 | 24,748,280 |
| 2030 | 47,749,007 | 23,333,955 | 24,415,051 |
| 2025 | 47,449,884 | 23,230,152 | 24,219,732 |
| Units: Number of persons. | |||
| Source: INE. | |||
Last update: October 28, 2021. Revised series on April 7, 2022.
Methodological note
The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2021) is the estimated population for 1 January 2021, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2020. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2071. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2040 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.
Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.
Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.
The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.