|Population (low scenario)||Population (medium scenario)||Population (high scenario)|
|Units: Base index 2013=100.|
|Units: Base index 2013=100.|
|(..) Confidential data, low reliability or not available.|
Date published: October 16, 2014.
The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the new projections is the estimated postcensal population for 1 January 2013, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2012. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The territorial disaggregation is as follows: Catalonia, the areas of the Territorial Plan, provinces, counties and the Barcelona municipality. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2051, whereas it is 2021 for territorial projections. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2026 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.
Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.
Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The mean scenario projects a combination of the mean fertility, mean life expectancy, and mean migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in according with recent data.
The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration (within the rest of Spain and abroad), and low fertility and low life expectancy.
Population projections are based on the Census, not the Register of Inhabitants. The Population Census, Population Estimates and Population Projections are statistical sources whose purpose is to establish the population series residing in Catalonia at all times. The Register of Inhabitants is an administrative source and are the official figures declared by the national government. The figures obtained from the Register are systemically higher than those produced in the population estimates, partly because the register does not make such an exhaustive account of those moving abroad. The population figures projected for the years to come must be compared against other statistical sources, such as the Population Census and the Population Estimates.
The municipal and county database on the Idescat website provides the results of the pyramids projected by sex and single age groups for Catalonia (2013–2051 period) and areas of the Territorial Plan, provinces, counties, and the municipality of Barcelona (2013–2026 period). Also available on the Idescat website is a .pdf document that provides an overview of the hypotheses and the main projection results.
Data from the European Union correspond to the 28 member states.
The projection data have been updated in October 2014.