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Projected active population. By age group Catalonia Value
Low scenario From 16 to 24 years From 25 to 54 years From 55 to 64 years From 65 to 74 years Medium scenario From 16 to 24 years From 25 to 54 years From 55 to 64 years From 65 to 74 years High scenario From 16 to 24 years From 25 to 54 years From 55 to 64 years From 65 to 74 years
2070 3,016,366 256,382 2,094,370 588,904 76,710 4,209,977 396,862 2,871,685 804,848 136,582 5,311,716 554,737 3,549,201 1,000,094 207,684
2065 3,099,424 264,846 2,158,459 599,708 76,411 4,212,294 402,044 2,875,600 801,923 132,727 5,244,918 556,218 3,495,979 992,880 199,841
2060 3,174,896 268,705 2,234,012 594,219 77,960 4,200,557 402,820 2,887,943 778,988 130,806 5,161,522 555,667 3,451,428 961,642 192,785
2055 3,251,784 268,581 2,307,944 594,553 80,706 4,182,730 396,355 2,895,627 760,259 130,489 5,065,151 543,383 3,406,155 928,158 187,455
2050 3,341,895 269,977 2,375,703 606,281 89,934 4,174,643 383,281 2,901,699 749,474 140,189 4,975,643 511,872 3,372,250 895,459 196,062
2045 3,461,787 277,473 2,443,017 639,460 101,837 4,201,144 369,517 2,915,892 762,452 153,283 4,927,512 470,053 3,360,273 888,132 209,054
2040 3,616,032 309,778 2,480,892 725,658 99,704 4,269,976 387,501 2,899,292 836,469 146,714 4,933,237 470,118 3,316,583 949,679 196,857
2035 3,759,149 344,431 2,528,646 793,644 92,428 4,330,494 421,001 2,886,164 889,461 133,868 4,936,505 503,601 3,267,723 987,638 177,543
2030 3,822,985 347,219 2,632,462 765,785 77,519 4,274,790 413,923 2,908,740 838,753 113,374 4,762,503 488,050 3,210,689 913,197 150,567
2025 3,824,095 300,494 2,767,025 705,233 51,343 4,095,056 346,559 2,930,475 739,847 78,175 4,363,178 393,971 3,089,927 773,831 105,449
Units: Thousands of actives.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021).

Last update: June 20, 2022.

Methodological note

The Active Population Projections statistical operation is the result of applying to the population, projected by sex and age, assumptions as to the future level of participation in the workforce.

The Active Population Projections provide two types of results:

  1. the projected active population
  2. the projected activity rate

The Active Population Projections offers information classified by sex and five-year age groups. This operation is updated every five years and the date of reference is 1 January each year.

In the section Earliar projections you can find the projections prior to the Active Population Projections base 2021 (the Active Population Projections 2015–2051, base 2015, the Active Population Projections 2021–2041, base 2010, and the Active Population Projections 2015–2030, base 2005)

Population Projections (base 2021). Current projections

The future population to which the new activity rates have been applied are the Population Projections (base 2021).

The time frame of the Active Population Projections of Catalonia corresponds to the period 2021–2071, while the territorial data corresponds to the period 2021–2046.

In the Active Population Projections (base 2021), the previous hypotheses have been revised in order to incorporate the most recent information from the Active Population Survey for the years 2015–2020. For the territorial hypotheses on labour participation, the regional data for the period 2016–2020 from the Statistics on the Contributors and Affiliations to Social Security based on Contributors' Registered Place of Residence and the Statistics on job seekers and registered unemployment have been used.

To reflect the uncertainty in the evolution of labour participation in the 2021–2071 period, three hypotheses were established, based on the results of the 2020 Economically Active Population Survey:

  1. low hypothesis
  2. average hypothesis
  3. high hypothesis

These three hypotheses on the evolution of labour participation have resulted in three scenarios for the active population:

  1. Low activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of low labour participation and a low population scenario.
  2. Average activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of average labour participation and an average population scenario.
  3. High activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of high labour participation and a high population scenario.

The results of the projected active population pyramids are provided by sex and five-year age group for Catalonia (2021–2071 period) and areas of the Territorial Plan, provinces, counties, and the municipality of Barcelona (2021–2046 period).

The oldest age group considered is the 70–74 age group. The projected rates of activity are also provided by sex and age group.

See also