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Projected active population. By age group

Projected active population. By age group Catalonia. 2050
Value Percentage (%)
Low scenario 2,666.3 100.0
From 16 to 24 years 229.9 8.6
From 25 to 54 years 1,920.2 72.0
From 55 to 64 years 451.7 16.9
From 65 to 74 years 64.4 2.4
Medium scenario 3,666.4 100.0
From 16 to 24 years 353.0 9.6
From 25 to 54 years 2,587.0 70.6
From 55 to 64 years 614.0 16.7
From 65 to 74 years 112.4 3.1
High scenario 4,633.9 100.0
From 16 to 24 years 484.8 10.5
From 25 to 54 years 3,213.2 69.3
From 55 to 64 years 772.9 16.7
From 65 to 74 years 163.0 3.5
Units: Thousands of actives.
Source: Idescat. Active Population Projections. 2015-2051.

Date published: April 14, 2016.

Statistics PROJPA

Methodological note

The Active Population Projections statistical operation is the result of applying to the population, projected by sex and age, assumptions as to the future level of participation in the workforce.

The Active Population Projections provide two types of results:

  1. the projected active population
  2. the projected activity rate

The Active Population Projections offers information classified by sex and five-year age groups. This operation is updated every five years and the date of reference is 1 January each year.

The Active Population Projections offers information classified by sex and five-year age groups. This operation is updated every five years and the date of reference is 1 January each year.

The current Active Population Projections 2015–2051. are based on the 2014 Active Population Survey and Population Projections 2013–2051.

The section Previous projections lists the projections made prior to the Active Population Projections 2015–2051 (Active Population Projections 2021–2041, Base 2010, and Active Population Projections 2015–2030, Base 2005).

Active Population Projections 2015–2051 Current projections

The future population to which the new rates of activities have been applied are given in the Population Projections 2013–2051.

The time frame of the Active Population Projection for Catalonia is the 2015–2051 period, while the territorial data correspond to the 2015–2026 period.

The Active Population Projections 2015–2051 (Base 2015) employ a similar methodology to the Active Population Projections 2021–2041 (Base 2010). This methodology consists of utilising an external source to establish the labour participation hypotheses by sex and five-year age group within a determined time frame. The rates for the intervening years are obtained by interpolating between the rates of the Active Population Survey observed at the onset of the projection (2014) and the target rates.

In the Active Population Projections 2015–2051, the previously-mentioned hypotheses were revised to incorporate more recent information from the Active Population Survey from the years 2010–2014 (a period with significant changes in the job market due to the economic crisis). In addition to introducing the effect of legislative changes regarding the retirement age and requisites for accessing retirement pensions, the rates of women's activity were modified and greater analysis was made of generational changes.

In order to reflect the uncertainty in the evolution of labour participation in the 2015–2051 period, three hypotheses were established, based on the results of the 2014 Active Population Survey:

  1. low hypothesis
  2. average hypothesis
  3. high hypothesis

These three hypotheses on the evolution of labour participation have resulted in three scenarios for the active population:

  1. Low activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of low labour participation and a low population scenario.
  2. Average activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of average labour participation and an average population scenario.
  3. High activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of high labour participation and a high population scenario.

The results of the projected active population pyramids are provided by sex and five-year age group for Catalonia (2015–2051 period) and areas of the Territorial Plan, provinces, counties, and the municipality of Barcelona (2015–2026 period).

The oldest age group considered is the 70–74 age group. The projected rates of activity are also provided by sex and age group.