The school age population (0 to 20 years) will remain stable in Catalonia until 2021 with 1.60 million persons and decline slightly until 2026 (1.56 million). By levels of education, a reduction of 11.6% in the population attending infant education (0 to 5 years) is expected, and of 15% among pupils of primary education (6 to 11). In contrast, a 7% increase in compulsory secondary education (12 to 15) is expected, and a 24.5% increase in further secondary education (16 to 20).
By counties, the population aged 0 to 20 will only increase in four counties and Aran: El Barcelonès (4.6%), El Tarragonès (2.0%), El Gironès (1.6%), Aran (1.3%) and El Segrià (0.3%). The counties where population will decline the most are El Solsonès (−11.0%), El Pallars Sobirà (−10.6%) and El Montsià (−10.1%). In the ages of infant and primary education (0 to11 years), all counties will lose population until 2026. The largest decreases in relative terms will occur in El Ripollès (−27.8%), L'Anoia (−26.5%) and L'Alta Ribagorça (−25.7%). The smallest decreases will occur in Aran (−2.4%) and El Barcelonès (−3.4%). In the ages of compulsory and further secondary educations (12 to 20 years) the population will rise in all counties. The largest increases will occur in El Tarragonès (22.5%), L'Alt Penedès (21.9%) and El Gironès (20.9%). The smallest increases will occur in La Ribera d’Ebre (2.6%), La Cerdanya (3.8%) and Les Garrigues (3.8%).
Idescat publishes Projeccions de població en edat escolar 2016-2026 [School-Age Population Projections 2016-2026], which includes the methodology and analysis of the main results, adding information for the Territorial Services of the Ministry of Education and framing the projected data in the context of historical data.
The School-Age Population Projections 2016-2026 make the trends in the population aged 0 to 20 over the next 10 years available. They quantify changes in numbers, and age, sex and territorial distribution of the school age population in Catalonia. The territorial disaggregation consists of Catalonia, the areas of the Territorial Plan, the provinces, counties, Barcelona municipal area and the territorial services of the Ministry of Education.
The School-Age Population Projections 2016-2026 are drawn from the assessment of the Population Projections 2013-2051 for the school age population, based on the most recent demographic information (years 2013 to 2015). One school age population scenario for each separate territory is available.