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Population Projections ( 2018 base)

The population of Catalonia will grow, reaching 8,009,000 by 2030, according to the average scenario of the Population Projections (2018 base). During this period the population will grow by almost half a million people, mainly due to migration, as natural growth (births with less deaths) will be negative. In the long term, the population of Catalonia will grow moderately, totalling 8,770,000 inhabitants by 2060.

Idescat provides three population projection scenarios (high, medium and low) based on different fertility estimates, life expectancy and migratory flows.

The school age population from 0 to 15 will fall from 1,264 million in 2018 to 1,137 million in 2030. The decrease will mainly affect in the primary and secondary education stages. In contrast, the population will increase in the post-compulsory secondary education and university education stages.

The orking age population (from 16 to 64 years old) will increase slightly as a result of the expected migratory balances. This potentially active population will rise from 4,863,000 in 2018 to 5,088,000 in 2030. At the same time, the working age population will become older, as the population aged 45 to 64 will increase in terms of absolute value and percentage.

The population aged 65 and above will rise from 1,417,000 in 2018 (18.8% of the population) to 1,785,000 in 2030 (22.3%) and 2,615,000 in 2060 (29.8%). The ageing will be particularly visible in the number of people aged over 80, which will rise from 460,000 inhabitants in 2018 to 567,000 in 2030 and 1,173,000 in 2060.

Life expectancy will continue to increase, reaching 83.2 years for men and 88.0 years for women by 2030 (the respective figures were 80.8 and 86.3 in 2016).

On a territorial scale, all the areas will have higher populations in 2030 in comparison with 2018, except for Les Terres de l’Ebre, where it will be lower (−0.7%). The areas with the highest rises in relative terms from now until 2030 will be El Penedès (8.1%), the Girona Counties (7.8%), El Camp de Tarragona (7.8%) and the Metropolitan Area (6.2%). The increases will be more moderate in the Central Counties (5.5%) and Ponent (2.5%), while they will be weaker in L’Alt Pirineu i Aran (0.2%).

The counties that will grow most in relative terms are El Gironès (11.5%), El Baix Penedès (11.5%), El Tarragonès (11.1%) and El Maresme (10.1%). At the other end of the scale, La Terra Alta (−8.0%), El Pallars Sobirà (−4.2%), Les Garrigues (−3.7%) and L’Alta Ribagorça (−3.3%) are those where the population will fall most in relative terms. The city of Barcelona would grow by 2.1% and would pass from 1.614 million inhabitants in 2018 to 1,648 million in 2030.

Projeccions de població (base 2018). Principals resultats [Population projections (2018 base). Main results] have been published based on the dissemination of these statistical results. The figures and the composition of the population are analysed on the 2030 and 2060 horizons, as well as the county results on the 2030 horizon, and details the evolution of growth components (birth, mortality and migration).

The Population Projections (2018 base) offer data for Catalonia, the 41 counties and Aran, the municipality of Barcelona, the 8 areas of the Territorial Plan and the 4 provinces. The starting point is the population on 1 January 2018. For Catalonia, they offer data for the period 2018-2061 and for the counties and Aran, the municipality of Barcelona, the areas of the Territorial Plan and the provinces offer data for the period 2018-2038.

The reference date for the populations is 1 January of each year. The results of the Population Projections (2018 base) are offered broken down by sex and simple age. The results of Catalonia are offered to the open group aged 105 years and over.