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Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and sex

Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and sex Catalonia Value
Low scenario Men Women Medium scenario Men Women High scenario Men Women
2060 6,905,766 3,346,631 3,559,135 8,770,092 4,329,356 4,440,736 10,490,139 5,225,516 5,264,623
2055 7,095,936 3,441,052 3,654,884 8,717,962 4,297,270 4,420,692 10,183,849 5,061,779 5,122,070
2050 7,257,136 3,522,581 3,734,555 8,639,077 4,252,514 4,386,563 9,865,363 4,892,388 4,972,975
2045 7,379,934 3,585,655 3,794,279 8,524,820 4,190,354 4,334,466 9,528,045 4,713,897 4,814,148
2040 7,464,865 3,630,402 3,834,463 8,373,703 4,110,254 4,263,449 9,165,138 4,523,381 4,641,757
2035 7,520,259 3,661,050 3,859,209 8,195,667 4,017,471 4,178,196 8,782,351 4,323,814 4,458,537
2030 7,556,435 3,681,755 3,874,680 8,009,428 3,920,725 4,088,703 8,399,704 4,124,641 4,275,063
2025 7,581,175 3,697,600 3,883,575 7,832,006 3,829,956 4,002,050 8,036,649 3,937,292 4,099,357
2020 7,569,130 3,700,374 3,868,756 7,636,113 3,735,776 3,900,337 7,686,061 3,762,208 3,923,853
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2018).
Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By sex Spain Value
Total Men Women
2060 49,042,063 23,393,755 25,648,308
2055 49,404,938 23,623,576 25,781,363
2050 49,643,014 23,805,242 25,837,772
2045 49,660,986 23,885,851 25,775,136
2040 49,465,505 23,866,895 25,598,609
2035 49,160,223 23,798,720 25,361,504
2030 48,731,578 23,671,118 25,060,460
2025 48,039,828 23,424,472 24,615,356
2020 47,078,257 23,052,937 24,025,320
Units: Number of persons.
Source: INE.

Last update: May 22, 2019.

Statistics PROJ

Methodological note

The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2018) is the estimated population for 1 January 2018, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2017. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2061. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2030 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.

Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.

Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.

The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.

The projection data (base 2018) have been updated in May 2019.