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Projected active population. By sex

Projected active population. By sex Catalonia Value
Low scenario Men Women Medium scenario Men Women High scenario Men Women
2070 3,016,366 1,621,069 1,395,297 4,209,977 2,233,650 1,976,327 5,311,716 2,783,188 2,528,528
2065 3,099,424 1,664,618 1,434,806 4,212,294 2,233,027 1,979,267 5,244,918 2,745,642 2,499,276
2060 3,174,896 1,703,812 1,471,084 4,200,557 2,224,423 1,976,134 5,161,522 2,698,760 2,462,762
2055 3,251,784 1,742,727 1,509,057 4,182,730 2,211,507 1,971,223 5,065,151 2,644,054 2,421,097
2050 3,341,895 1,786,692 1,555,203 4,174,643 2,201,942 1,972,701 4,975,643 2,591,308 2,384,335
2045 3,461,787 1,844,449 1,617,338 4,201,144 2,209,084 1,992,060 4,927,512 2,559,119 2,368,393
2040 3,616,032 1,920,062 1,695,970 4,269,976 2,238,715 2,031,261 4,933,237 2,555,717 2,377,520
2035 3,759,149 1,990,158 1,768,991 4,330,494 2,264,282 2,066,212 4,936,505 2,551,145 2,385,360
2030 3,822,985 2,016,610 1,806,375 4,274,790 2,234,047 2,040,743 4,762,503 2,467,062 2,295,441
2025 3,824,095 2,006,531 1,817,564 4,095,056 2,140,474 1,954,582 4,363,178 2,271,894 2,091,284
Units: Thousands of actives.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021).

Last update: June 20, 2022.

Methodological note

The Active Population Projections statistical operation is the result of applying to the population, projected by sex and age, assumptions as to the future level of participation in the workforce.

The Active Population Projections provide two types of results:

  1. the projected active population
  2. the projected activity rate

The Active Population Projections offers information classified by sex and five-year age groups. This operation is updated every five years and the date of reference is 1 January each year.

In the section Earliar projections you can find the projections prior to the Active Population Projections base 2021 (the Active Population Projections 2015–2051, base 2015, the Active Population Projections 2021–2041, base 2010, and the Active Population Projections 2015–2030, base 2005)

Population Projections (base 2021). Current projections

The future population to which the new activity rates have been applied are the Population Projections (base 2021).

The time frame of the Active Population Projections of Catalonia corresponds to the period 2021–2071, while the territorial data corresponds to the period 2021–2046.

In the Active Population Projections (base 2021), the previous hypotheses have been revised in order to incorporate the most recent information from the Active Population Survey for the years 2015–2020. For the territorial hypotheses on labour participation, the regional data for the period 2016–2020 from the Statistics on the Contributors and Affiliations to Social Security based on Contributors' Registered Place of Residence and the Statistics on job seekers and registered unemployment have been used.

To reflect the uncertainty in the evolution of labour participation in the 2021–2071 period, three hypotheses were established, based on the results of the 2020 Economically Active Population Survey:

  1. low hypothesis
  2. average hypothesis
  3. high hypothesis

These three hypotheses on the evolution of labour participation have resulted in three scenarios for the active population:

  1. Low activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of low labour participation and a low population scenario.
  2. Average activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of average labour participation and an average population scenario.
  3. High activity scenario: combines a hypothesis of high labour participation and a high population scenario.

The results of the projected active population pyramids are provided by sex and five-year age group for Catalonia (2021–2071 period) and areas of the Territorial Plan, provinces, counties, and the municipality of Barcelona (2021–2046 period).

The oldest age group considered is the 70–74 age group. The projected rates of activity are also provided by sex and age group.

See also