Projected population as of 1 January (base 2024). By evolution scenarios and sex
| Low scenario | Men | Women | Medium scenario | Men | Women | High scenario | Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2070 | 7,495,568 | 3,720,054 | 3,775,514 | 8,953,767 | 4,477,069 | 4,476,698 | 10,642,316 | 5,340,446 | 5,301,870 |
| 2065 | 7,666,284 | 3,799,534 | 3,866,750 | 8,978,363 | 4,480,381 | 4,497,982 | 10,484,319 | 5,249,863 | 5,234,456 |
| 2060 | 7,832,828 | 3,878,277 | 3,954,551 | 8,993,090 | 4,479,715 | 4,513,375 | 10,317,032 | 5,155,522 | 5,161,510 |
| 2055 | 7,979,310 | 3,947,854 | 4,031,456 | 8,985,144 | 4,468,354 | 4,516,790 | 10,132,178 | 5,053,049 | 5,079,129 |
| 2050 | 8,091,646 | 4,000,696 | 4,090,950 | 8,942,261 | 4,439,762 | 4,502,499 | 9,919,020 | 4,936,876 | 4,982,144 |
| 2045 | 8,164,191 | 4,033,552 | 4,130,639 | 8,858,501 | 4,390,799 | 4,467,702 | 9,669,630 | 4,802,859 | 4,866,771 |
| 2040 | 8,199,843 | 4,048,046 | 4,151,797 | 8,735,685 | 4,322,829 | 4,412,856 | 9,381,925 | 4,650,554 | 4,731,371 |
| 2035 | 8,205,869 | 4,048,462 | 4,157,407 | 8,585,260 | 4,242,229 | 4,343,031 | 9,068,337 | 4,486,675 | 4,581,662 |
| 2030 | 8,195,425 | 4,040,435 | 4,154,990 | 8,429,457 | 4,159,511 | 4,269,946 | 8,740,437 | 4,316,583 | 4,423,854 |
| 2025 | 8,078,162 | 3,977,892 | 4,100,270 | 8,112,958 | 3,995,845 | 4,117,113 | 8,151,286 | 4,015,628 | 4,135,658 |
| Units: Number of persons. | |||||||||
| Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2024). | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2070 | 54,563,561 | 26,680,908 | 27,882,653 |
| 2065 | 54,664,564 | 26,699,291 | 27,965,273 |
| 2060 | 54,839,724 | 26,765,029 | 28,074,695 |
| 2055 | 54,965,070 | 26,821,831 | 28,143,239 |
| 2050 | 54,884,721 | 26,790,746 | 28,093,975 |
| 2045 | 54,514,658 | 26,626,880 | 27,887,778 |
| 2040 | 53,892,709 | 26,347,668 | 27,545,041 |
| 2035 | 53,109,718 | 25,994,340 | 27,115,377 |
| 2030 | 51,876,064 | 25,416,948 | 26,459,116 |
| 2025 | 49,265,049 | 24,138,777 | 25,126,273 |
| Units: Number of persons. | |||
| Source: INE. | |||
Last update: October 28, 2021. Revised series on April 7, 2022.
Methodological note
The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of the demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration and emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population Projections (base 2024) is the population as for 1 January 2024, calculated from the Population Census 2024. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The temporal horizon for the Projections in Catalonia is year 2074. The results are specially intended to be evaluated on the short-term and mid-term basis, given the uncertainty of the evolution of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.
Regarding future evolution of the components, three hypotheses (high, medium and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.
Three scenarios (or combination of hypotheses) were defined. The medium scenario assumes a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable evolution of the growth and demographic structure in Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.
The high and low scenarios offer the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum levels of population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility, high life expectancy and high migration are combined. Low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.
For further information about these statistics, you may check the methodology.