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Projected population on 1 January. By evolution scenarios. Counties and Aran, areas and provinces

Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios. Counties and Aran, areas and provinces Catalonia
Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario
2045 7,424,817 8,516,253 9,512,526
2040 7,514,099 8,388,817 9,215,125
2035 7,575,914 8,236,125 8,892,587
2030 7,618,850 8,073,329 8,536,549
2025 7,659,666 7,887,834 8,092,760
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population projections. (base 2021).

Last update: April 7, 2022.

Methodological note

Methodological aspects

The goal of population projections is to describe possible future population evolution, both in total size and according to different variables: sex and age; place of residence; composition of the household; relationship with the activity.

Idescat updates population projections in five-year cycles.

The current projections are the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2021) and an update of the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2018).

The advance base Population Projections 2021 provide data for Catalonia. The starting point is the population on 1 January 2021, which includes the increase in mortality and the decrease in fertility and migration resulting from the pandemic in 2020. Data are provided for the period 2021-2071.

There are three projection scenarios: low, medium and high. Three scenarios have been developed for each of the projection items: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration, migration with the rest of Spain and migration with foreign countries.

The medium scenario assumes a combination of average fertility, average life expectancy and average migration (with the rest of Spain and foreign countries). This scenario is intended to reflect the most likely evolution of demographic growth and structure in Catalonia according to recent data. The medium scenario is considered as the reference scenario.

Unavailable information is represented using the symbol ":". When the value is lower than that of the minimum unit to be able to estimate the statistical operation or if it effects statistical confidentiality, the symbol used is "..".