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Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and sex

Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and sex Catalonia. 2060
Value 2018 base index=100
Low scenario 6,905,766 92
Men 3,346,631 91
Women 3,559,135 92
Medium scenario 8,770,092 116
Men 4,329,356 117
Women 4,440,736 115
High scenario 10,490,139 139
Men 5,225,516 141
Women 5,264,623 137
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2018).
Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By sex Spain. 2060
Value 2018 base index=100
Total 49,042,063 105
Men 23,393,755 102
Women 25,648,308 108
Units: Number of persons.
Source: INE.

Date published: May 22, 2019.

Statistics PROJ

Methodological note

The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2018) is the estimated population for 1 January 2018, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2017. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2061. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2030 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.

Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.

Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.

The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.

The projection data (base 2018) have been updated in May 2019.