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Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and age groups

Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and age groups Catalonia. 2060
Value Percentage (%)
Low scenario 6,905,766 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 883,059 12.79
From 16 to 64 years 3,866,412 55.99
From 65 years and over 2,156,295 31.22
Medium scenario 8,770,092 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 1,209,540 13.79
From 16 to 64 years 4,944,860 56.38
From 65 years and over 2,615,692 29.83
High scenario 10,490,139 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 1,554,108 14.81
From 16 to 64 years 5,896,050 56.21
From 65 years and over 3,039,981 28.98
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2018).
Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By age groups Spain. 2060
Value Percentage (%)
Population 49,042,063 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 6,697,868 13.66
From 16 to 64 years 27,311,195 55.69
From 65 years and over 15,033,001 30.65
Units: Number of persons.
Source: INE.

Date published: May 22, 2019.

Statistics PROJ

Methodological note

The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2018) is the estimated population for 1 January 2018, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2017. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2061. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2030 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.

Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.

Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.

The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.

The projection data (base 2018) have been updated in May 2019.