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Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios and age groups

Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios and age groups Catalonia. 2045
Value Percentage (%)
Low scenario 7,424,817 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 910,611 12.26
From 16 to 64 years 4,318,200 58.16
From 65 years and over 2,196,006 29.58
Medium scenario 8,516,253 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 1,172,917 13.77
From 16 to 64 years 4,952,336 58.15
From 65 years and over 2,391,000 28.08
High scenario 9,512,526 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 1,438,585 15.12
From 16 to 64 years 5,511,564 57.94
From 65 years and over 2,562,377 26.94
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2021).
Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By age groups Spain. 2045
Value Percentage (%)
Population 49,485,811 100.00
From 0 to 15 years 6,384,868 12.90
From 16 to 64 years 27,828,961 56.24
From 65 years and over 15,271,982 30.86
Units: Number of persons.
Source: INE.

Last update: October 16, 2014. Revised series on April 7, 2022.

Methodological note

The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2021) is the estimated population for 1 January 2021, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2020. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2071. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2040 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.

Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.

Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.

The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.