Projected population as of 1 January. By evolution scenarios and age groups
From 0 to 15 years | From 16 to 64 years | 65 years and over | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of persons | % | Number of persons | % | Number of persons | % | Total | |
2025 | |||||||
Low scenario | 1,166,482 | 14.4 | 5,317,797 | 65.8 | 1,593,883 | 19.7 | 8,078,162 |
Medium scenario | 1,171,413 | 14.4 | 5,342,010 | 65.8 | 1,599,535 | 19.7 | 8,112,958 |
High scenario | 1,177,011 | 14.4 | 5,369,972 | 65.9 | 1,604,303 | 19.7 | 8,151,286 |
2030 | |||||||
Low scenario | 1,051,628 | 12.8 | 5,396,714 | 65.9 | 1,747,083 | 21.3 | 8,195,425 |
Medium scenario | 1,094,624 | 13.0 | 5,552,001 | 65.9 | 1,782,832 | 21.2 | 8,429,457 |
High scenario | 1,149,377 | 13.2 | 5,774,179 | 66.1 | 1,816,881 | 20.8 | 8,740,437 |
2035 | |||||||
Low scenario | 972,645 | 11.9 | 5,310,552 | 64.7 | 1,922,672 | 23.4 | 8,205,869 |
Medium scenario | 1,062,888 | 12.4 | 5,532,957 | 64.4 | 1,989,415 | 23.2 | 8,585,260 |
High scenario | 1,178,933 | 13.0 | 5,835,492 | 64.4 | 2,053,912 | 22.6 | 9,068,337 |
2040 | |||||||
Low scenario | 955,054 | 11.6 | 5,129,626 | 62.6 | 2,115,163 | 25.8 | 8,199,843 |
Medium scenario | 1,100,100 | 12.6 | 5,415,121 | 62.0 | 2,220,464 | 25.4 | 8,735,685 |
High scenario | 1,278,578 | 13.6 | 5,779,952 | 61.6 | 2,323,395 | 24.8 | 9,381,925 |
2045 | |||||||
Low scenario | 960,615 | 11.8 | 4,913,736 | 60.2 | 2,289,840 | 28.0 | 8,164,191 |
Medium scenario | 1,145,414 | 12.9 | 5,270,802 | 59.5 | 2,442,285 | 27.6 | 8,858,501 |
High scenario | 1,370,998 | 14.2 | 5,704,479 | 59.0 | 2,594,153 | 26.8 | 9,669,630 |
2050 | |||||||
Low scenario | 951,665 | 11.8 | 4,778,918 | 59.1 | 2,361,063 | 29.2 | 8,091,646 |
Medium scenario | 1,154,685 | 12.9 | 5,221,757 | 58.4 | 2,565,819 | 28.7 | 8,942,261 |
High scenario | 1,395,697 | 14.1 | 5,748,532 | 58.0 | 2,774,791 | 28.0 | 9,919,020 |
2055 | |||||||
Low scenario | 926,280 | 11.6 | 4,688,144 | 58.8 | 2,364,886 | 29.6 | 7,979,310 |
Medium scenario | 1,135,576 | 12.6 | 5,222,762 | 58.1 | 2,626,806 | 29.2 | 8,985,144 |
High scenario | 1,384,507 | 13.7 | 5,845,623 | 57.7 | 2,902,048 | 28.6 | 10,132,178 |
2060 | |||||||
Low scenario | 892,369 | 11.4 | 4,598,890 | 58.7 | 2,341,569 | 29.9 | 7,832,828 |
Medium scenario | 1,110,001 | 12.3 | 5,217,504 | 58.0 | 2,665,585 | 29.6 | 8,993,090 |
High scenario | 1,374,016 | 13.3 | 5,925,358 | 57.4 | 3,017,658 | 29.2 | 10,317,032 |
2065 | |||||||
Low scenario | 861,355 | 11.2 | 4,506,304 | 58.8 | 2,298,625 | 30.0 | 7,666,284 |
Medium scenario | 1,094,161 | 12.2 | 5,198,554 | 57.9 | 2,685,648 | 29.9 | 8,978,363 |
High scenario | 1,382,934 | 13.2 | 5,979,943 | 57.0 | 3,121,442 | 29.8 | 10,484,319 |
2070 | |||||||
Low scenario | 839,288 | 11.2 | 4,400,898 | 58.7 | 2,255,382 | 30.1 | 7,495,568 |
Medium scenario | 1,091,200 | 12.2 | 5,160,327 | 57.6 | 2,702,240 | 30.2 | 8,953,767 |
High scenario | 1,408,758 | 13.2 | 6,011,600 | 56.5 | 3,221,958 | 30.3 | 10,642,316 |
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2024). |
You can find other data on this indicator in the Basic indicators of Catalonia.
You can find more detailed results in the source of this indicator: Population Projections (PROJ).
Last update: April 7, 2022.
Methodological note
The purpose of the Population Projections is to describe the possible future population evolution, the structure by age and sex, and the territorial distribution.
Idescat updates the Population Projections in five-year cycles.
The current Projections are the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2024).
The Population Projections (base 2024) provide data for Catalonia for the period 2024–2074 and for the areas of the territorial Plan, the provinces and the counties for the period 2024–2049. The starting point is the population as of 1 January 2024, in accordance with the Population Census 2024.
There are three projection scenarios: low, medium and high. Three hypotheses have been developed for each of the Projections components: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration, migration within the rest of Spain and migration abroad.
The medium scenario assumes a combination of medium fertility, medium life expectancy and medium migration (with the rest of Spain and abroad). This scenario is intended to reflect the most probable evolution of demographic growth and structure in Catalonia, in accordance with recent data. The medium scenario is considered as the reference scenario.
For further information about these statistics, you may check the Methodology.
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