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Projected population as of 1 January. By size of municipality and large age groups. Medium scenario

Projected population as of 1 January (base 2024). Medium scenario Catalonia. 2044
From 0 to 15 years From 16 to 64 years 65 years and over
Number of persons % Number of persons % Number of persons % Total
Total 1,138,758 12.9 5,292,758 59.9 2,405,390 27.2 8,836,882
Up to 500 Inhabitants 8,496 11.1 43,135 56.3 24,976 32.6 76,608
From 501 to 2.000 Inhabitants 32,841 11.9 160,002 57.8 83,758 30.3 276,599
From 2.001 to 5.000 Inhabitants 57,129 12.7 260,618 58.2 130,422 29.1 448,153
From 5.001 to 10.000 Inhabitants 82,810 13.1 365,491 57.8 183,513 29.0 631,811
From 10.001 to 50.000 Inhabitants 320,347 13.1 1,425,900 58.1 706,411 28.8 2,452,650
From 50.001 to 1.000.000 Inhabitants 434,804 13.6 1,929,041 60.1 844,233 26.3 3,208,081
More than d'1.000.000 Inhabitants 202,331 11.6 1,108,571 63.6 432,077 24.8 1,742,980
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2024).

Last update: July 28, 2025.

Methodological note

The purpose of the Population Projections is to describe the possible future evolution of the population, its age and sex structure, and its territorial distribution.

Idescat updates the Population Projections every five years.

The latest Projections are the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2024).

The Population Projections (base 2024) provide data for Catalonia for the period 2024–2074; for the areas of the territorial Plan, the provinces and the counties for the period 2024–2049; and for the municipalities for the period 2024–2044. The starting point is the population as of 1 January 2024, according to the Population Census 2024.

The Projections include three scenarios: low, medium, and high. For each component of the Projections (fertility, life expectancy, internal migration, migration with the rest of Spain, and international migration) three hypotheses have been developed.

The medium scenario assumes a combination of average fertility, average life expectancy, and average migration (both migration with the rest of Spain and international migration). This scenario is intended to reflect the most likely evolution of demographic growth and structure in Catalonia, based on recent data. The medium scenario is considered to be the reference scenario.

The Population Projections are produced using the component method with a multiregional approach. This method involves adding each year to the initial population pyramid the components of demographic growth: flows in natural population changes (births and deaths) and migration flows (immigration and emigration). At the same time, consistency is ensured both across the results for Catalonia, the counties, and the municipalities, as well as across the municipalities of the same county.

For further information about these statistics, you may check the methodology.