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Projected population on 1 January. By evolution scenarios. Counties and Aran, areas and provinces

Projected population on 1 January (base 2021). By evolution scenarios. Counties and Aran, areas and provinces 2045
Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario
Alt Camp 42,853 49,366 56,990
Alt Empordà 127,050 150,895 184,897
Alt Penedès 106,717 123,941 141,218
Alt Urgell 17,139 19,951 21,318
Alta Ribagorça 3,451 4,035 4,514
Anoia 122,400 141,209 160,065
Aran 10,410 11,649 12,403
Bages 171,141 191,065 222,622
Baix Camp 189,633 221,788 260,017
Baix Ebre 73,758 81,181 86,383
Baix Empordà 127,390 149,660 180,987
Baix Llobregat 798,386 938,097 1,062,208
Baix Penedès 109,021 129,585 149,962
Barcelonès 2,128,638 2,362,155 2,462,689
Berguedà 37,401 41,639 48,249
Cerdanya 19,162 20,755 22,389
Conca de Barberà 17,573 20,106 22,958
Garraf 140,022 167,127 194,209
Garrigues 16,475 18,380 19,910
Garrotxa 60,138 68,858 80,784
Gironès 192,576 225,702 273,318
Maresme 456,491 534,481 604,252
Moianès 15,080 17,085 19,532
Montsià 64,553 72,022 78,799
Noguera 35,961 39,981 42,932
Osona 165,195 184,900 219,979
Pallars Jussà 12,146 13,404 14,602
Pallars Sobirà 6,882 7,710 8,298
Pla d'Urgell 35,920 39,620 42,330
Pla de l'Estany 34,135 38,740 45,018
Priorat 8,402 9,720 11,257
Ribera d'Ebre 19,178 21,327 23,068
Ripollès 23,115 26,389 30,351
Segarra 22,483 25,079 27,042
Segrià 198,598 221,240 237,538
Selva 161,955 192,556 233,822
Solsonès 12,894 14,429 16,877
Tarragonès 254,512 302,928 361,729
Terra Alta 9,354 10,290 11,060
Urgell 36,951 41,157 44,177
Vallès Occidental 925,858 1,086,676 1,233,425
Vallès Oriental 413,820 479,375 538,348
Catalonia 7,424,817 8,516,253 9,512,526
Metropolità 4,727,538 5,405,826 5,906,564
Comarques Gironines 726,359 852,800 1,029,177
Camp de Tarragona 512,973 603,908 712,951
Terres de l'Ebre 166,843 184,820 199,310
Ponent 346,388 385,457 413,929
Comarques Centrals 402,374 449,722 528,259
Alt Pirineu i Aran 69,190 77,504 83,524
Penedès 473,152 556,216 638,812
Barcelona 5,481,149 6,267,750 6,906,796
Girona 741,896 869,523 1,047,194
Lleida 412,935 460,667 496,313
Tarragona 788,837 918,313 1,062,223
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population projections. (base 2021).

Methodological note

Methodological aspects

The goal of population projections is to describe possible future population evolution, both in total size and according to different variables: sex and age; place of residence; composition of the household; relationship with the activity.

Idescat updates population projections in five-year cycles.

The current projections are the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2021) and an update of the Population Projections of Catalonia (base 2018).

The advance base Population Projections 2021 provide data for Catalonia. The starting point is the population on 1 January 2021, which includes the increase in mortality and the decrease in fertility and migration resulting from the pandemic in 2020. Data are provided for the period 2021-2071.

There are three projection scenarios: low, medium and high. Three scenarios have been developed for each of the projection items: fertility, life expectancy, internal migration, migration with the rest of Spain and migration with foreign countries.

The medium scenario assumes a combination of average fertility, average life expectancy and average migration (with the rest of Spain and foreign countries). This scenario is intended to reflect the most likely evolution of demographic growth and structure in Catalonia according to recent data. The medium scenario is considered as the reference scenario.

Unavailable information is represented using the symbol ":". When the value is lower than that of the minimum unit to be able to estimate the statistical operation or if it effects statistical confidentiality, the symbol used is "..".