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Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and age groups

Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By evolution scenarios and age groups Catalonia Value
Low scenario From 0 to 15 years From 16 to 64 years From 65 years and over Medium scenario From 0 to 15 years From 16 to 64 years From 65 years and over High scenario From 0 to 15 years From 16 to 64 years From 65 years and over
2060 6,905,766 883,059 3,866,412 2,156,295 8,770,092 1,209,540 4,944,860 2,615,692 10,490,139 1,554,108 5,896,050 3,039,981
2055 7,095,936 923,439 3,947,840 2,224,657 8,717,962 1,224,114 4,901,317 2,592,531 10,183,849 1,527,114 5,734,759 2,921,976
2050 7,257,136 957,254 4,036,922 2,262,960 8,639,077 1,239,626 4,852,292 2,547,159 9,865,363 1,512,096 5,558,426 2,794,841
2045 7,379,934 973,842 4,179,004 2,227,088 8,524,820 1,235,346 4,852,758 2,436,716 9,528,045 1,486,791 5,425,666 2,615,588
2040 7,464,865 974,264 4,413,077 2,077,524 8,373,703 1,198,932 4,952,929 2,221,842 9,165,138 1,428,627 5,393,187 2,343,324
2035 7,520,259 979,329 4,641,800 1,899,130 8,195,667 1,151,763 5,051,618 1,992,286 8,782,351 1,339,066 5,373,353 2,069,932
2030 7,556,435 1,029,614 4,796,936 1,729,885 8,009,428 1,136,608 5,087,795 1,785,025 8,399,704 1,259,443 5,309,354 1,830,907
2025 7,581,175 1,128,658 4,873,280 1,579,237 7,832,006 1,181,854 5,043,903 1,606,249 8,036,649 1,239,882 5,167,997 1,628,770
2020 7,569,130 1,240,439 4,872,838 1,455,853 7,636,113 1,251,984 4,921,843 1,462,286 7,686,061 1,263,235 4,955,077 1,467,749
Units: Number of persons.
Source: Idescat. Population Projections (base 2018).
Projected population on 1 January (base 2018). By age groups Spain Value
Population From 0 to 15 years From 16 to 64 years From 65 years and over
2060 49,042,063 6,697,868 27,311,195 15,033,001
2055 49,404,938 6,846,906 27,064,512 15,493,520
2050 49,643,014 6,926,300 27,017,671 15,699,043
2045 49,660,986 6,846,943 27,508,011 15,306,033
2040 49,465,505 6,650,680 28,654,364 14,160,461
2035 49,160,223 6,506,779 29,800,582 12,852,863
2030 48,731,578 6,594,207 30,616,115 11,521,256
2025 48,039,828 6,946,136 30,827,195 10,266,497
2020 47,078,257 7,367,518 30,450,646 9,260,094
Units: Number of persons.
Source: INE.

Last update: May 22, 2019.

Statistics PROJ

Methodological note

The Population Projections have been produced using the components method. This method consists of annually adding the components of demographic growth (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) to the starting pyramid. The starting pyramid for the Population projections (base 2018) is the estimated population for 1 January 2018, calculated from the 2011 Census information and demographic movement for 2011–2017. The date of reference for projected populations is 1 January of each year. The time horizon for projections in Catalonia is 2061. The results are especially intended to be evaluated on the mid-term basis (2030 horizon), given the uncertainty of the development of these growth components in the future, migration in particular.

Regarding their future development, 3 hypotheses (high, mean and low) were considered for each component: fertility, life expectancy, migration within the rest of Spain, migration abroad and internal migration.

Three scenarios (or combination of hypothesis) have been defined: The medium scenario projects a combination of the medium fertility, medium life expectancy, and medium migration. This scenario aims to reflect the most probable development of the growth and demographic structure of Catalonia, in accordance with recent data.

The higher and lower scenarios provide for the possibility of evaluating the maximum and minimum population that Catalonia might have in the future. In the high scenario, high fertility is combined with a high life expectancy and high migration. The low scenario includes low migration, low fertility and low life expectancy.

The projection data (base 2018) have been updated in May 2019.