Active Population Projections. 2021-2071
The active population of Catalonia will grow by 317,000 people from 2021 to 2031 and will reach 4.3 million, a figure that represents a growth of 8.0% over this period, according to the medium scenario of the 2021-2071 Active Population Projections. In the long term, the active population of Catalonia would remain at 4.3 million people in 2041 and would fall slightly to 4.2 million in 2071.
By age group, in the 2031 time frame, the active population aged 16 to 24 will stand at 423,000, representing an increase of 111,000 in the active population. The population aged 25 to 54, which makes up the bulk of the active population, will decrease from 2.97 million people in 2021 to 2.90 million in 2031. On the other hand, the number of active people aged 55 to 64 will increase, from 652,000 to 855,000, and will account for one in every 5 active people. The number of active workers over the age of 65 is increasing and will continue to increase. In 2031 there will be 119,000 active people over 65, more than double the 48,000 in 2021.
By sex, the percentage of women in the active population will remain at a similar level to the current one, at around 48%. This is because women are already firmly incorporated into the workforce in young and adult age groups. In the case of people over 65, the number of active men will double in 10 years (from 29,000 to 62,000) and the number of active women will triple (from 18,000 to 57,000).
The activity rate in Catalonia will have increased by 2031 and will stand at 80.3% of the population aged 16 to 64 (83.1% for men and 77.5% for women). By age group, the main increases in activity rates will occur in people over 55 years of age, due to legislative changes regarding the retirement age. And it will be in the 65 to 74 age group where the activity rate will show the greatest change, rising from 6.8% in 2021 to 13.2% in 2031.
All the counties except La Conca de Barberà, La Terra Alta and Les Garrigues will see an increase in the active population by 2031. The counties that will show the greatest growth in relative terms will be El Tarragonès (12.6%), El Baix Penedès (12.3%) and El Gironès (11.2%).
Idescat provides three scenarios of active population projections based on different population and labour participation hypotheses. This news focuses on the medium scenario, which is considered the most plausible in accordance with the current demographic dynamics.
The Active population projections (base 2021) offer data for Catalonia, the 41 counties and Aran, the city of Barcelona, the 8 areas of the Territorial Plan and the 4 provinces. The data for Catalonia is provided for the period 2021-2071 and for the rest of the territories for the period 2021-2046.
The data of the Active Population Projections (base 2021) are available in the Open Data section, where they can be consulted and downloaded in different CSV and JSON formats.