Population Projections. 2024–2074
The population of Catalonia would continue to grow standing at 8.554 million people in 2034, which would represent an increase of 6.8%, in accordance with the demographic trends assumed in the medium scenario of the Population Projections base 2024. From 2024 to 2034, the population would increase by 541 thousand people mainly due to the effect of migration, as natural growth (birth minus deaths) would be negative in this period. In the long term, Catalonia’s population would grow moderately, reaching 8.9 million inhabitants both in 2049 and 2074.
In 2034 the population would be larger than the current population in all counties and Aran. In particular, the growth in 27 counties and Aran would be higher than in Catalonia (6.8%), headed by El Baix Penedès (18.5%) and La Garrotxa (14.8%). At the opposite end, the population in 15 counties would grow below average, headed by La Ribera d’Ebre (0.9%) and La Terra Alta (1.0%).
By age groups, the population aged 0 to15 would have decreased by 128 thousand inhabitants (falling from 1.190 million people in 2024 to 1.062 million in 2034) and would decrease in all the counties. The counties where it would decrease the most would be L’Alt Urgell (−18.1%) and El Pla de l’Estany (−17.0%).
The population aged 16 to 64, would increase slightly, changing from 5.257 million people in 2024 to 5.544 million in 2034. 40 counties and Aran would register this growth, while in La Ribera d’Ebre and El Solsonès it would decrease. The most remarkable growth in relative terms would be in La Garrotxa (16.2%) and El Baix Penedès (15.8%).
The population aged 65 and over would reach 1.1948 million people, with the largest increase (24.4% between 2024 and 2034). Within this age group, the population aged 80 and over (29.6%) would increase the most. The population aged 65 and over would increase in all counties, particularly in El Baix Penedès (44.0%), La Cerdanya (42.8%) and El Moianès (42.5%).
Idescat provides three population projections scenarios for Catalonia and the counties, calculated on different hypotheses considering fertility, life expectancy and migration. This piece of news is focused on the medium scenario, considered to be the most plausible scenario in accordance with the current demographic dynamic. The high scenario forecasts a population of 9.0 million people in 2034, 9.9 million people in 2049 and 10.8 million people in 2074. The low scenario forecasts a population of 8.2 million people in 2034, 8.1 million people in 2049 and 7.4 million in 2074.
The Population Projections (base 2024) provide data for Catalonia for the period 2024−2074 and data for provinces, areas of the territorial Plan, counties and Aran for the period 2024−2049.