Population Projections. 2024–2044. Municipalities
According to the medium scenario of the 2024 population based projections, between 2024 and 2034, the number of inhabitants will increase in 791 Catalan municipalities, decrease in 147 and remain stable in 9.
At a territorial level, all the municipalities in L' Alt Penedès, El Baix Penedès. El Barcelonès, La Cerdanya, El Garraf, La Garrotxa, El Gironès, El Lluçanès, El Maresme, El Moianès and El Pla de l'Estany would see their populations increase. At the other extreme, only 26.3% of the municipalities in L'Alt Urgell and 41,7% of the municipalities in Terra Alta would increase their populations.
The municipalities with more than 5,000 inhabitants that would experience the highest relative growth are Cunit (27.8%), Calafell (23.7%) and Llagostera (22.5%). Conversely, Badia del Vallès (−3.1%), La Llagosta (−2.9%) and La Sénia (−1.7%) would be the municipalities with more than 5,000 inhabitants projected to lose the most population.
By municipality size, 346 of the 360 municipalities with more than 2,000 inhabitants would see their population increase by 2034, as would 84.9 municipalities with 501 to 2,000 inhabitants. By contrast, onlysmall municipalities would see their population decrease (168 of the 332 municipalities with less than 500 inhabitants).
In terms of the components of the demographic growth, 85 municipalities (9.0% of the total) would have more births than deaths in the 2024-2033 period. By contrast, 919 municipalities (97.0%) are expected to experience positive net migration during this period, and for many of them, it would compensate the negative natural population balance.
In terms of the structure by age, in 2034 the population aged 0-15 years would decrease in 722 municipalities (3 out of every 4). The population aged 16 to 64 would increase in 673 municipalities, and the older population, aged 65 and over, would increase in 888 municipalities (9 out of every 10).
Population ageing is a general trend in Catalonia that affects the entire territory. In all population size groups, the share of the population aged 65 years and over would increase. The most significant increase would occur in municipalities ranging from 5,001 to 10,000 inhabitants (from 18.6% to 23.6%), which currently have the lowest percentage of population aged 65 years and over. Municipalities with up to 500 inhabitants are the most aged in 2024 and would remain so in 2034, when 29.1% of the population (3 out of every 10 people) would be aged 65 years and over. The municipalities with the lowest percentage of people aged 65 and over in 2034 would be those with more than 100,000 inhabitants (21.9%).
Among municipalities with more than 5,000 inhabitants, those projected to have the highest percentage of population aged 65 and over in 2034 would be L’Ametlla de Mar (31.9%), Llançà (30.9%) and Sant Fost de Campsentelles (29.5%), whereas Salt (15.7%), Guissona (16.3%) and Alcarràs (17.2%) would have the lowest shares.