Business Climate Survey. Section on the Current Entrepreneurial Situation. Q1/2025

In the first quarter of 2025, 27.1% of business establishments in Catalonia reported having direct or indirect economic relations with non-EU country: 15.0% with the United States included, and 12.1% without.

Among the establishments which have direct or indirect economic relations with a non-EU country, 55.2% were very concerned or fairly concerned about a tariff increase (12.0% very and 43.2% fairly), while 44.8% were not very concerned or not at all concerned about it. By size, establishments with 50 employees and over reported the highest percentages of concern at 59.0%. Moreover, the level of concern was higher among establishments which had economic relations with the United States, with 59.0% reporting that they were very concerned or fairly concerned about a tariff increase (16.7% very and 42.3% fairly), while among those that had economic relations with non-EU countries but any with the United States, this percentage stood at 50.6% (6.2% very and 44.4% fairly).

Likewise, 66.8% of establishments with economic relations with non-EU countries expected that business costs would rise in the event of a tariff increase. In contrast, 26.6% said that a tariff increase would have no impact on their business costs while 6.7% thought that costs would fall.

The main strategy to be adopted by the establishments if a country with which they have economic relations were to implement or experience a tariff increase would be to pass on the tariff increase to the final price (72.9%). This is followed by reducing profit margins (54.2%), starting or ramping up investment and sales in the EU market (54.1%) and changing the supply chain by diversifying suppliers (53.6%). A further 41.9% of the establishments would open or step up new sales markets outside the EU while the strategy of relocating production (or part of it) to the country increasing tariffs would be pursued by the lowest percentage of establishments (12.3%).

In relation to the actions governments should take to minimise the impact of a tariff increase, the most frequently cited by the establishments (94.3%) were negotiations and trade diplomacy at political level (bilateral dialogue or international partnerships to improve export conditions). This was followed by encouraging local production (administrative and regulatory simplification, more training, more innovation, etc.) at 90.4%, and cutting logistics costs (improving infrastructure and lowering customs costs) at 90.2%.

Finally, 48.2% of the establishments which had some kind of economic relations with non-EU countries reported that any strengthening of the dollar would have a negative impact on their business. By sector, this percentage is higher in trade (59.6%) and industry and construction (49.9%) than in accommodation and food service activities and other services (40.3%).