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Municipal Population Projections. 2021–2041

According to the medium scenario of the 2021 population based projections, between 2021 and 2041, the number of inhabitants will increase in 644 Catalan municipalities, decrease in 293 and remain stable in 10.

At a territorial level, all the municipalities in EL Baix Llobregat, EL Garraf, EL Maresme, EL Moianès, EL Tarragonès and EL Vallès Oriental would see their populations increase. At the other extreme, only 17% of the municipalities in La Terra Alta, 20% in La Noguera, 21% in Pallars Jussà and 25% in Les Garrigues would increase their populations.

By municipality size, 320 of the 354 municipalities with more than 2,000 inhabitants would see their population increase by 2041, as would 2 out of every 3 municipalities with 501 to 2,000 inhabitants. By contrast, half of the small municipalities would see their population decrease (168 of the 332 municipalities with less than 500 inhabitants).

By degree of urbanisation, the medium-sized cities and semi-dense areas, which include 204 municipalities, will see the most significant population increases in relative terms, with a projected 12.0% increase between 2021-2041. As a whole, the 55 large cities will grow by 7.4%, while the 688 municipalities located in rural areas will grow by 6.3%.

In terms of the components of the demographic growth, 142 municipalities (15% of the total) would have more births than deaths in the 2021-2041 period. By contrast, 876 municipalities (93%) are expected to experience positive net migration during this period, and for many of them, it would compensate the negative natural population balance.

In terms of the structure by age, in 2041 the population aged 0-15 years would decrease in 715 municipalities (3 out of every 4). The population aged 16 to 64 would decrease in 601 municipalities, and the older population, aged 65 and over, would increase in 876 municipalities (9 out of every 10).

The data of the Municipal Population Projections are available in the Open Data section, where they can be consulted and downloaded in different CSV and JSON formats.